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Brazil Corn Exports Lag as US Harvest Swells: What CIF Buyers Should Know for November 2026

By Abe Dinkel, Commodities Trader, Dossix International Trade Inc · Published November 1, 2026

The safrinha delivered — now it has to move

Brazil's 2025/26 second-crop corn came in close to the best on record. In its 12th survey of the season, CONAB put the safrinha at 112.1 million tonnes, only about 1% under the previous high, and the total three-crop harvest at 144 million tonnes, up 2% on the year. The first crop also posted a record yield of 7,191 kg/ha.

So supply is not the question this season. The question is logistics and timing: how much of that corn reaches a ship before Brazil's soybean harvest starts competing for the same trucks, silos and berths early next year.

For a buyer, a big crop that is moving slowly is usually good news. It means sellers carry stock they need to clear, and that tends to show up in offers.

Exports are running behind last year

The shipping data has been soft for two months. Brazil exported 5.212 million tonnes of corn in September against 7.563 million a year earlier, according to Secex figures summarised by Revista Cultivar, with Egypt, Iran and Vietnam the top destinations.

October improved but did not catch up. After 16 working days Brazil had shipped about 4.15 million tonnes, a daily pace of roughly 259,600 tonnes versus 295,500 tonnes a day in October 2025, a gap of about 12% (Portal do Agronegócio, citing Secex). The exporters' association ANEC now sees the full month at about 6.1 million tonnes, cut by some 770,000 tonnes from its prior week's view (Reuters via Notícias Agrícolas).

The forward picture is thinner still. Port line-ups compiled by Safras & Mercado showed just under 4.0 million tonnes scheduled for November and only 68,000 tonnes for December (Portal do Agronegócio). One analyst quoted in the same coverage reckons Brazil needs roughly 6 million tonnes in each of November and December, plus about 5 million in January, to reach 38 million tonnes for the season.

CONAB and USDA: two very different export numbers

The official estimates do not agree on how much corn Brazil will sell abroad. CONAB's October survey still expects 2025/26 exports of 43.9 million tonnes, with stocks rebuilding to 16 million tonnes by February 2027. USDA's October WASDE is far more cautious at 38.0 million tonnes for 2025/26, on a crop it puts at 141.0 million tonnes.

Part of the gap is accounting (the two agencies use different marketing years), but part of it is a genuine difference of opinion. The slow pace since August is pushing the market's view towards the lower number.

Looking further out, CONAB's first look at 2026/27 sees corn area up 4.9% to 23.7 million hectares and output of 148 million tonnes. Summer-crop area alone is forecast up 10.7% to 4.54 million hectares, with planting in the South close to 80% done by October 9. USDA has Brazil's 2026/27 crop at 139.0 million tonnes and exports rising to 43.0 million.

The US harvest is weighing on everything

The bigger story for prices is the United States. USDA raised its 2026 US yield by 2.7 bushels to 181.2 bu/acre, lifting the crop to about 16.0 billion bushels and 2026/27 ending stocks to about 1.8 billion bushels. US exports were raised to 3.3 billion bushels, and world corn ending stocks rose to 280.4 million tonnes.

The market reacted hard. On report day December futures traded around $4.70, and Helena Agri-Enterprises noted prices had fallen more than 75 cents from contract highs. By the close on October 30, CBOT December corn settled at 447.75 cents per bushel (Yahoo Finance data).

Brazil's domestic market followed. The CEPEA/ESALQ corn indicator (Campinas region) closed October 30 at R$65.64 per 60 kg bag, about US$12.04 and down 4.41% for the month. The national average reported by Portal do Agronegócio fell 6.72% in October to R$62.11, with the steepest drop in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, where a bag went from R$67.00 to R$55.00.

What this means for CIF buyers out of Santos

Put together, the setup favours the buyer for the next few months. Brazilian sellers have a large crop, slower than expected exports, and falling inland prices, while US Gulf corn is abundant and cheap. Brazilian origin has to compete for every cargo.

Timing matters, though. Brazil's corn export season typically peaks in the second half of the year and runs into January. From February, soybeans take priority at the ports and corn line-ups usually shrink. A buyer who wants Brazilian corn on a vessel before the soy rush should be fixing November–January shipment now, not in late December.

Currency is the wild card. The dollar traded between roughly R$5.60 and R$5.35 during October and was near R$5.43 on October 30 (Portal do Agronegócio). A weaker real makes Brazilian offers cheaper in dollar terms. CIF buyers should ask for a fixed dollar price rather than an open formula, so that freight and FX surprises stay on the seller's side.

At Dossix International Trade Inc, Abe Dinkel is advising buyers to compare Santos CIF offers directly against US Gulf corn on a delivered basis for their port, rather than judging on FOB alone. Freight differences to the Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia can swing the comparison either way.